What Was Really Said: An Overview of the 2009 Housing Forecast

If you’re a regular visitor to my site then you already know I attended the 21st Annual REALTORS® Housing Forecast Seminar last Thursday. As promised in my post last week, the following is my summary of what was said and what the predictions were for the coming year.

All-in-all it was a great (sold out) event with over 800 people in attendance and some fantastic (and extremely knowledgeable) speakers. The following is a list of speakers at the event:

• Aroon Sequeira, Partner & Senior Vice President, Ernst and Young;
• Ron Gilbertson, President and CEO, Edmonton Economic Development Corp.;
• Pat Adams, President, Canadian Home Builders Association – Edmonton Region;
• Ian Glassford, CFO, Servus Credit Union;
• Richard Goatcher, Senior Market Analyst, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; and
• Charlie Ponde, President, REALTORS® Association of Edmonton.

As you can see by the list, insight at the event was provided by some pretty big brains with a lot more economics knowledge  and experience than most of us will ever begin to understand.

Rather than write a long-winded post, I have opted to provide a bullet-list summary of the main points offered by the speakers:

• even the large companies expect their revenue growth to slow but are still positive on Edmonton;
• any major company or firm should be in Edmonton, despite economic concerns;
• Edmonton is a world-class city with many strengths that will help us through these uncertain times;
• Edmonton’s economic diversity (i.e. not just oil and gas) will help to insulate us from the ups and downs;
• we have survived previous ups and downs and our highs and lows won’t be as high and as low as they were then (e.g. recessions of the 1980s and 1990s);
• there are always opportunities, even in times of turmoil;
• globally there is a shift to return OF principal rather than return ON principal;
• deflation and deferred consumption is a negative self-fulfilling cycle;
• in Canada and Alberta, we are in much better shape than most other economies;
• recessions happen, BUT so do recoveries and this cycle is not new (we just haven’t seen it for awhile);
• at the moment, interest rates are coming down while incomes are still rising;
• Edmonton home prices may experience minor gains and minor losses throughout the year; and
• it is expected the overall prices in Edmonton at the end of 2009 will finish where they are today.

The following story provides a great summary of part of the overall message attendees were to take away from the event. It is a PDF version of the story The Hot Dog Vendor provided at the event by the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton.

Feel free to contact me if you’d like some more information on what was really said at the 2009 Housing Forecast Seminar.

///…CP